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Market Overview US crude oil and products bucked the trend following a week of high volatility containing statements from Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell and tariff threats out of the White House. Last Tuesday, Jerome Powell signaled business as usual for the Fed, which marks a continuation of Janet Yellen’s preferred strategy of gradual …
Fed Speak and Tariff Threats Spook the Energy Complex Read More »
Event Risk USD Powell’s Congressional Testimony is Released: Tuesday @ 8:30 am EST USD Advance Goods Trade Balance: Tuesday @ 8:30 am EST USD Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday @ 8:30 am EST USD Powell Testifies to House Financial Services Committee: Tuesday @ 10:00 am EST EUR German Unemployment: Wednesday @ 3:55 am EST EUR Euro-Zone …
Economic Indicators: FOMC Meeting Minutes from January 31 meeting: February 21 @ 2:00 pm EST GBP Gross Domestic Product 4Q: February 22 @ 04:30 am EST JPY National Consumer Price Index: February 22 @ 6:30 pm EST CAD Consumer Price Index: February 23 @ 8:30 am EST Energy and Global Markets The US Dollar and …
Hedge Funds Hold Net Positioning Steady Despite Fall in Crude Prices Read More »
WTI futures have fallen roughly 10% since January 25th as US oil production ramps up. Recent reports out of the EIA show production climbing to 10.251 million bpd from 9.919 million bpd. WTI, Brent, and Dubai crude continue their sustained backwardation despite the rise in US production. OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report released today acknowledges …
Oil Falls as US Production Rises; Declining Exports Point to Continued Builds Read More »
In a week of political whiplash, the US Dollar stands on uncertain ground as traders grow weary of signals from the White House and Department of the Treasury. The US Dollar has been facing heavy selling pressure in recent weeks as the market rotates into other currencies such as the Euro or British Pound. The …
Speculative positioning in NYMEX WTI futures is nearing historic levels as net position for Managed Money contracts climbs to 432,650 and the hedge fund ratio jumps to 15.13. Net positioning is firmly above its high of 405,328 made on 2/21/2017 and the hedge fund ratio is 0.07 away from its high of 15.20 formed on …
Speculators Challenge Historic Long Positioning as Global Inventories Fall Read More »
A constant stream of bullish events has pushed crude oil and its products higher since the end of November. On December 7, a leak was detected on the Forties Pipeline System in the North Sea. The pipeline was closed for repairs five days later, removing 450,000 bpd of production from the global market. On December …
Long-term global supply & demand models suggest current oil prices are underperforming historical values. Regression analysis of 6-month average supply-demand differentials versus WTI futures prices since 2005 have oil near $80 per barrel. An intercommodity model regressing oil prices to correlated commodities also suggests higher prices, although to a lesser extent. As of December 31, …
Empirical Models Suggest Higher Prices; Risk Reversal Threat Remains High Read More »
